國立臺灣師範大學政治學研究所與中華民國海洋事務與政策協會 聯合主辦

論文摘要

Ma Ying-Jeou’s Legacy and Tsai Ing-Wen’s Choice：The South China Sea Homework for President Tsai

By Chung Chieh,

(Ph. D in International Affairs and Strategic Studies, Tamkang University)

From the author’s perspective, after her inauguration in May 2016, President Tsai has faced the future tasks in regard to the South China Sea, which can be categorized in two aspects: 1) whether to continue the former President Ma’s numerous policies and actions or not; and 2) her final reaction to the Award by the Permanent Court of Arbitration on 12 July 2016 and if her government wants to change the statements of sovereign claims on the South China Sea.

This paper believes that President Tsai’s government’s decision on the South China Sea sovereignty will be dominated by: 1) the position held by Tsai herself and her core national security advisors; 2) the concern over the Cross-Strait relations ; 3) the position of the United States Government and 4) the opinions from the elites inside the Democratic Progressive Party(DPP).

If Tsai decides to change the Taiwan’s claims, the P.R.C will take more compelling measurements against Taiwan when it feels its definition of sovereignty is severely challenged and even regards Tsai’s government as moving towards “de jure independence”. Amongst the current “Struggle without Breaking” consensus of the P.R.C, the U.S., Japan and other relevant countries, it is possible that Tsai’s government not only loses the Cross-Strait relationship but also becomes the prey of hostile superpowers at the same time.

 

Keyword :

ROC’s sovereignty claims over the South China Sea, Arbitration between the Republic of the Philippines and the People’s Republic of China, Taiping Island, Zhongzhou Reef, Tsai Ing-Wen.